ELIZABETH NOLAN BROWN — The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) inflated data about teen girls and sexual assault in a news release about a new CDC report on teenage mental health. In 2021, the percentage of teen girls who reported that they had ever been “forced to have sex” was up 27 percent since 2019, the health agency said, calling it “the first increase since the CDC began monitoring this measure.”

The percentage of teen girls reporting this in the CDC’s Youth Risk Behavior Survey reporting did rise, unfortunately—but not by quite the magnitude that the CDC news release said, reports Washington Post fact checker Glenn Kessler. The actual increase was not 27 percent, but 18.4 percent.

And even this number leaves some room for doubt, owing to differences in data collection between previous-year surveys and 2021.

“The CDC’s focus on the challenges facing teenage girls — especially regarding mental health — is timely and important. But the CDC’s use of inflated figures on sexual violence could undermine its larger message,” suggests Kessler.

The first problem with the CDC’s data stems from rounding. In 2019, 11.4 percent of teen girls in the Youth Risk Behavior Survey said they had been forced to have sex; in the 2021 survey, it was 13.5 percent. That’s a rise of 2.1 percentage points or—put another way—an 18.4 percent increase. In presenting the data, however, the CDC rounded the 2019 number down to 11 percent and the 2021 number up to 14 percent. Using these rounded numbers, you get a 27 percent increase.

Any increase here is concerning, of course. And whether it’s 11 or 14 percent, that’s still a disturbingly large percentage of teen girls who say they’ve been forced to have sex.

But some experts suggest that CDC data inflate a rise in recent years, since a lot of schools surveyed refused to ask students questions about sexual violence.

The increase in the number of schools choosing not to ask that question is huge. In 2017, 4 percent of schools surveyed didn’t ask their students about any sexual violence and 2 percent didn’t ask about rape, according to mathematician David Stein. In 2019, a quarter of schools surveyed failed to ask questions about any sexual violence and 18 percent didn’t ask about rape. In 2021, 23 percent didn’t ask about sexual violence and, again, 18 percent didn’t ask about rape.

“That could have biased the sample by possibly removing jurisdictions with lower rates of reporting rape and sexual violence,” Kessler points out:

Stein’s analysis of the available 2019 data suggests girls who were not given the questions were considerably younger than those who had received the questions and thus less likely to have had sex and to be sexually active — two factors, he said, that are associated with a higher risk of being a victim of sexual violence.

Elizabeth L. Jeglic, a clinical psychologist who studies sexual violence prevention at John Jay College in New York, said she could not comment specifically on the CDC methodology, but she said sampling and response rate can affect findings. “If the question is asked about lifetime occurrence and younger girls are not being sampled (or less likely to be sampled) you will likely see a higher prevalence rate as older girls will have more years to experience sexual violence than younger girls,” she said in an email.

Kessler notes that “other survey questions with more robust participation by schools — such as violence in dating and violence in bullying — indicated declines, not increases.”

For instance, the National Crime Victimization Survey suggests teen rates of experiencing sexual assault and rape have declined over the past three decades. And the CDC’s Adolescent Behaviors and Experiences Survey (ABES) puts the rape victimization rate at 10.4 percent and the sexual violence victimization rate at 15.3 percent.

There is perhaps an overload of information circulating the internet, television, and social media with various discussions about the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The COVID-19 strain is a serious issue, and NCRSOL is watching developments closely for our registry, family, and ally communities. 

Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that can cause illness in humans. Human coronaviruses commonly circulate in the United States and usually cause mild illnesses like the common cold. Coronaviruses like COVID-19 are most often spread through the air by coughing or sneezing, through close personal contact (including touching and shaking hands) or through touching your nose, mouth or eyes before washing your hands.

The CDC recommends to follow these common-sense measures to protect yourself and others from spreading viruses, including COVID-19:

• Wash hands frequently with soap and water for at least 20 seconds at a time.
• Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth with unwashed hands.
• Avoid close contact with people who are ill.
• Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue when you cough or sneeze.
• Do not reuse tissue after coughing, sneezing, or blowing your nose.
• Clean and disinfect surfaces that are frequently touched.

The CDC does not recommend that people who are healthy wear a facemask to protect themselves from respiratory viruses. Facemasks should be used by people who have been diagnosed with COVID-19 and other respiratory illnesses like flu to protect others from getting infected. 

Currently, there is no vaccine to protect against COVID-19. The best way to protect yourself from respiratory diseases like COVID-19 is to take common-sense precautions. 

Most people with illnesses due to coronavirus recover on their own. There are no specific treatments for COVID-19, but treatments to bring down fever or alleviate other symptoms may help. For people who become severely ill, hospitals can provide care. 

Older adults and people who have severe chronic medical conditions like heart, lung, or kidney disease and those with weakened immune systems seem to be at higher risk for more serious COVID-19 illness.

If you develop symptoms within 14 days after travel from an affected area or have contact with a person known to have COVID-19, you should call to discuss this with your health care provider and your local health department. Effective 3/13/2019, President Trump authorized a national emergency declaration. That declaration allows states to set up emergency operation centers “effective immediately” and asking “every hospital in the country to activate its emergency preparedness plan.” 

Those impacted by the N.C. Sex Offender Registry bi-annual and in some cases, quarterly in-person sheriffs visits have not been put on hold or suspended. The staff at NCRSOL urges all those directly impacted by the sex offender registry to continue to obey the law and appear when notified by letter to do so. It is advisable to check with the Sheriff in your county of registration for up-to-date information should COVID-19 procedures and closing suddenly escalate. Never assume because the courts are closed that the Sheriff’s office will be closed. Law enforcement is a continual 24-hour cycle. Additionally, there is no legal remedy within current state registry laws that allows for national emergencies. NCRSOL urges all registrants to remain compliant to avoid unnecessary legal problems. 

Most of all, NCRSOL urges everyone to be safe, healthy, and informed. Hopefully, soon the COVID-19 will pass so that we may get back to a sense of normalcy in our daily lives.